Nov 6

Nov 6 Is Climate Change Here? Real or Not, Land Developers Need to be Ready

The presumption of climate change is going cause changes for land developers:

Don’t worry, I am not going to make an effort to get you to believe or not believe that “climate change” exists today, or is coming down the road. I have my own opinion, but Americans are already ideologically and politically polarized enough. Many minds are already made up - and nothing, but nothing, is going to change that except what reality eventually turns out to be. So, hopefully we are on neutral turf to start off.

Having set the proper framework for today’s discussion, when you see the words “climate change” in this article you are free to stick with your current beliefs without interference or argument.

“Climate change”

I figure there are three current positions on the topic:

It is an absolute farce.
It is here, caused by us, and getting worse.
It might be here, but humans are not causing it.

No matter what position we take:

As land developers, we are already affected by climate regulations from our government in the form of environmental laws and we will be as we move forward. We also deal with organized environmental groups that oppose our projects and the land development regulations imposed by political influence are everywhere you look. It kind of depends where you are too. When I developed land in the Pacific Northwest, all decidedly blue states, the influence of environmental groups and stricter compliance laws were felt much more than here in Florida, which is a red state.

No matter where you develop land though, I believe our land development businesses are going to be heavily affected going forward by climate change, actual or perceived, real or fake.

Example: Water

Long before the words climate change ever surfaced, water has been very tightly regulated. Regulation in the United States is under the primary control of each state. Even though state control is primary; federal, county, city, tribal and even international interests are all fighting for their piece of the action too. A good example is the Colorado River which, from source to mouth, provides water to several states and Mexico (before we took it all). Mexico got the short end of that stick since the U.S. uses almost all of the water and now it’s a trickle by the time it reaches the Sea of Cortez.

More on water regulation here: Understanding Water Rights — Land Development Realities

Climate is not seasonal weather:

Scientists tell us that climate is not seasonal weather. Climate being the macro long-term changes that happen over decades and centuries. Climate can affect seasonal weather, but seasonal weather is not earth’s overall climate. Sticking with the water example above, it is an incontestible fact that the Colorado River that feeds massive water to several states is in peril. The water level at Hoover Dam is getting close to the dead zone, where the water level of Lake Meade could fall below the level where the dam can release it downstream. The drought that has affected snowpack for years in the Rockies (the main Colorado River water source) is an actual fact no matter how you look at it. Whether that is climate change or not, I’ll leave up to you.

What this example points to is that if the water levels fall below the dam’s dead zone, there are going to be some monumental regulatory changes in water availability to Nevada and California (especially California agriculture). Just a bad spell of weather, or caused by climate change? Whatever the cause, if the dead zone is hit, there are going to be massive impacts!

You say: “But that’s not my land development company’s problem”!

Yes, it’s not your problem, or is it? All land developers, including those in Nevada and California, have always have been subject to water approval and availability for plat review. Just because there is a 15” water main running next to a project does not mean there is, or will be, water available to serve it!! That’s been the case for years. Besides the volume capacity of the water line, the acutal availability of water is also subject to the governing laws. Just because it’s there, doesn’t mean you can use it! If there is less water availability or capacity moving forward, getting it is going to be an exponentially growing problem for land developers.

What regulatory changes could we expect to see?

Federal, regional, state, county and city and planners are already deeply involved in land use and these agencies will make presumptive choices about projected future climate conditions and how to deal with them. My opinion is that their choices will be based on regulating from the position that climate change is real and that regulatory changes will be made on that basis. This, in turn, could result in increasingly complex and costly review, compliance, permitting, construction and material costs. These costs will be born by the applicants…you, me and ultimately the buyers.

In a regulatory environment where presumed climate change exists there could be some big changes in the following areas and many more:

Water use in the form of water rights could become even more complex than it already is. Existing water rights may be reduced in volume or eliminated entirely.
Water availability for land projects could be further regulated and limited.
Water limits at the household level could be enforced by flow meters with automatic shut off valves. A scenario something like - a max of 1,500 gallons per day and then you’re shut down.
Project common area landscaping and amenities could require irrigation-free designs.
Designs of detention ponds that collect and distribute storm water could be modified from current standards using expanded collection, absorption and distribution calculations to cope with anticipated flooding events.
Retention ponds that collect and store water could be expanded in arid areas of the country and even measures put in place to mitigate evaporation.
Measures to collect water vapor (dew collectors) could be employed in extreme and permanently arid situations.
Underground storm drainage designs could be increasingly complex to allow for more frequent flooding events.
Federally designated flood zones could be expanded; resulting in increased permitting and project design complexity.
Project fire control standards could be modified as it relates to clearing and grubbing, building site placement, distance between density units, number of hydrants and the size of the water line charging the hydrants.

… much more!

Remember what I said before please!

I am not trying to make a case to convince you for or against climate change. I am making the case that I believe regulators will make a presumptive decision that climate change does exist and if you are a land developer and if this becomes true, you are going to be living through it at a heightened regulatory and fiscal level.

Immovable characteristics of land:

‘Ya can’t move land and acquisition in a global warming world would present key considerations related to topography and the modification of natural hydrologic conditions. This would definitely be a “grab the high ground” situation.

See this:
Topography in land development: https://www.landdevelopmentrealities.com/home/2019/9/13/topography-in-real-estate-development

The presumption of climate change is going cause changes for land developers:

I guess I owe it to you to state what I think about whether climate change is real or fake. I am concerned about glaciers melting and changing weather patterns. As stated before, true climate change takes decades to prove, but the measured and rising Co2 levels in the atmosphere point in a human direction for global warming, mostly related to hydrocarbon fueled transportation. It’s very troubling.

But the real message here is for the land developer. I’ve been around the block a few times and I know the way land use patterns evolve and how regulations are conceived. I definitely think that land developers need to project for a regulatory environment where presumed climate change is plowed into the development laws that we will following going forward.

Good luck and stay safe!